METODE SINGLE MOVING AVERAGE UNTUK PREDIKSI FLUKTUASI HARGA BAHAN POKOK DAN BARANG PENTING : STUDI KASUS DI KABUPATEN SUMEDANG

Fitri Nurjanah; Moh Firman Mujahid; Fathoni Mahardika; Deris Santika

doi:10.69933/v6gxjv38

Authors

FITRI NURJANAH Sebelas April University Author
MOH FIRMAN MUJAHID Communication, Information, Coding and Statistics Service Author
Fathoni Mahardika Sebelas April University Translator
Deris santika Sebelas April University Translator

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.69933/v6gxjv38

Keywords:

single moving average, prediction fluctuations in prices, essentials goods and important goods, MAPE

Abstract

In supply chain management and product planning, the prices of essential and important goods can be difficult to control given the numerous factors that influence their fluctuations. Predicting changes in the prices of essential goods and important items is crucial to ensuring supply and price stability. The dataset of essential goods and important items prices falls under Time Series data. One of the most common prediction methods is the Single Moving Average (SMA), which is the simplest method and does not use weighting in the calculation of closing price movements. The purpose of this study is to evaluate the effectiveness of the Single Moving Average (SMA) method in predicting changes in the prices of essential goods and important items based on historical data. The results of the Single Moving Average (SMA) prediction method will be tested using the MAPE method. This study provides an understanding of the benefits and limitations of the Single Moving Average (SMA) method in predicting changes in the prices of essential goods and important items. The findings also show that this method can provide adequate estimates of changes in the prices of essential goods and important items over a certain period.

Abstract

In supply chain management and product planning, the prices of essential and important goods can be difficult to control given the numerous factors that influence their fluctuations. Predicting changes in the prices of essential goods and important items is crucial to ensuring supply and price stability. The dataset of essential goods and important items prices falls under Time Series data. One of the most common prediction methods is the Single Moving Average (SMA), which is the simplest method and does not use weighting in the calculation of closing price movements. The purpose of this study is to evaluate the effectiveness of the Single Moving Average (SMA) method in predicting changes in the prices of essential goods and important items based on historical data. The results of the Single Moving Average (SMA) prediction method will be tested using the MAPE method. This study provides an understanding of the benefits and limitations of the Single Moving Average (SMA) method in predicting changes in the prices of essential goods and important items. The findings also show that this method can provide adequate estimates of changes in the prices of essential goods and important items over a certain period.

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Author Biographies

FITRI NURJANAH, Sebelas April University

Sebelas April University
MOH FIRMAN MUJAHID, Communication, Information, Coding and Statistics Service

Statistics Division, Communication, Information, Coding and Statistics Service
Fathoni Mahardika, Sebelas April University

Informatics, Faculty of Information Engineering, Sebelas April University
Deris santika, Sebelas April University

Sebelas April University

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